February 22, 2009

  • *OSCAR UPSET?*

    I have this feeling in my gut that Oscar nite's biggest surprise is gonna be one big upset.  And by upset, I mean: not the movie with the most noms ("Benjamin Button"); and not the movie with the most buzz and awards season wins ("Slumdog").  That's right folks.  I'm thinking "MILK" will steal the nite's biggest plate of cookies, and here are my reasons, theories, and rationalizations:

    - Having seen all the Best Pictures noms (except "The Reader") I can, with a clear conscience, declare that "Milk" was my favorite.  And in my humble opinion, the best.  It was everything a best picture ought to be: dramatic, historic, empowering, moving, awesome ensemble acting, known actors in transformative roles, a heart-wrenching death, and above all, important and relevant. 

    - "Slumdog" was perfectly fine and entertaining, but I didn't see it on the big screen (rather, via a "Property of Fox Searchlight" disc), so I didn't receive the full cinematic effect.  But I got the gist.  For me, it's not the unparalleled golden goose I was expecting.  I personally relate to a 1970's equal rights activist more than to an indian street urchin in love with a girl and winning big on a game show.  But that's just me.

    - "Benjamin Button" was a handsome picture for sure, but lacked that overwhelming reaction I expect from a best picture.  The old-lady-dying-in-the-hospital-telling-story gimmick is so annoying to me, and Cate Blanchett's character is not all that likable for most of the movie.  Brad was fine, but no one's showering any best actor awards on him.  And so many times in the movie I wanted to see the BIG scene...where a confession/revelation/devastation truly stops the heart, but there was none of that.  The whole movie seemed to be on valium for me. 

    - So "Milk" was the only one I left the theater feeling truly at peace with -- at peace with the acting, directing, writing, and overall impact.   

    - Yes, "Benjamin Button" has the most Oscars noms, but that doesn't really mean much these days.  It'll win technical awards for sure.

    - Yes, "Slumdog" has been cleaning up award after award, including the Globes, SAG, Critic's Choice, BAFTA....

    ....BUT.....

    - the Globes win doesn't really mean much because the Hollywood foreign press is partial to anything that's unexpected and international.  

    - the SAG win was for Best Acting Ensemble.  The award was also won by the casts of "The Full Monty" and "Little Miss Sunshine."  pffft.

    - Oscar voters are about 6,000 actors, directors, writers,
    producers, etc.  Americans mostly, working in and around the Hollywood system.  They prefer to reward an American film, to ensure them future work and future recognition, to feed their own species.  This was a topic of debate the year Gwyneth "Shakespeare in Love" Paltrow stole the Best Actress from Cate "Elizabeth" Blanchett.  Film critics rationalized that a win for Gwyneth is an investment in the young American actress and Hollywood stardom, over a relative British unknown.  (Of course, that theory would be refuted last year with Marion Cotillard's Best Actress).  I just don't see Oscar voters overwhelmingly awarding "Slumdog", a movie that could just as easily have been subtitled and been the golden Best Foreign Language Film entry.  As with any influential/powerful group, the basic politics are present.  Holly won't be Bolly woo'd that easily.

    - It's a post-Proposition-8 Hollywood/California/country.  There is anger and indignation over the issue, and gay is on everyone's mind.  Gay is in everyone's lives, esp the lives of these creative types casting the votes.  They need only look around their everyday lives to see the rainbow (if not at themselves): their stylists, publicists, agents, brothers, sisters, children, or if you're Katie Holmes or Sarah Jessica Parker,....their husbands.  Gay is golden, and a vote for an award can also be a vote for what they stand for and believe in (or so I hope).

    - "Milk" will be the Hollywood atonement for letting "Brokeback Mountain" lose to "Crash."

    So, that's my story and I'm sticking to it.  If by the end of the show, I'm horribly wrong and "Slumdog" does indeed win the big prize (or worse...."Benjamin Button" does), then I'll be humbled and bit disheartened.  And this entry will have been deleted to hide my prediction shame, without any evidence of my ever having posted it. 

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